I completely disagree with you. Money is there, and can be made betting these props, because they are NOT as sharp as in the sports. Perfect example is last week, with X2. The line at WSEX opened at 70 million and they got hit very, very hard on the over. We all know how that one turned out.
JP
JP
Plus, INTERTOPS had The Lizzie McGuire Movie OVER 17 million for +550 or more... and Lizzie made 17,355... So that was a big winner for me.
They have a JUST FOR FRIDAY prop that came out today for Daddy Day Care... In my eyes, the winning number is easy to pick, and I've got $55 on it cause I know it's a winner.
Easy money, baby!!
RB
They have a JUST FOR FRIDAY prop that came out today for Daddy Day Care... In my eyes, the winning number is easy to pick, and I've got $55 on it cause I know it's a winner.
Easy money, baby!!
RB
Then why not come out and say what you took? From your previous post, you say you think Daddy Day Care will do well... So you won't be taking the $5.9 million or less bet. Only a sucker would take the $14 million or more bet.
So that leaves:
$9 to $10.9 million
$7 to $8.9 million
$6 to $6.9 million
$11 to $13.9 million
So basically you've got to nail the winning number of a movie that is getting bashed by the critics, opening the week after the current "King of the Summer", and a week before the actual "King of the Summer" -- and you've got to nail it within ~$2 million dollars.
Easy money? Possibly if you can see the future. Terrible value? Definitely.
So that leaves:
$9 to $10.9 million
$7 to $8.9 million
$6 to $6.9 million
$11 to $13.9 million
So basically you've got to nail the winning number of a movie that is getting bashed by the critics, opening the week after the current "King of the Summer", and a week before the actual "King of the Summer" -- and you've got to nail it within ~$2 million dollars.
Easy money? Possibly if you can see the future. Terrible value? Definitely.
JCambert,
There are certainly cases when lines wind up being over or under-estimated, but I think that's primarily due to studio projections being off as well. I'm fairly confident oddsmakers get the tracking numbers and then shift the lines based on the action they get. I stopped betting these props a few months ago, but I still keep up with them, and there have been many instances where the gross fell into just a few hundred thousand dollars of the O/U.
A good example is the McGuire movie...that's cutting it real close!
Just for grins, let's archive the current numbers for this weekend and see how close the actual #s turn out to be...
From OLY
Daddy Day Care: O/U 26 million
From WSEX
DDC: U/O 25 with the Over at -190.
From these lines, I'm going to guess that the movie comes in at 26 mil and some change. Problem is, a couple hundred grand would make all the difference. If the lines were regularly off by millions, I'd be more willing to play. But it seems like it's always a pretty close contest.
There are certainly cases when lines wind up being over or under-estimated, but I think that's primarily due to studio projections being off as well. I'm fairly confident oddsmakers get the tracking numbers and then shift the lines based on the action they get. I stopped betting these props a few months ago, but I still keep up with them, and there have been many instances where the gross fell into just a few hundred thousand dollars of the O/U.
A good example is the McGuire movie...that's cutting it real close!
Just for grins, let's archive the current numbers for this weekend and see how close the actual #s turn out to be...
From OLY
Daddy Day Care: O/U 26 million
From WSEX
DDC: U/O 25 with the Over at -190.
From these lines, I'm going to guess that the movie comes in at 26 mil and some change. Problem is, a couple hundred grand would make all the difference. If the lines were regularly off by millions, I'd be more willing to play. But it seems like it's always a pretty close contest.
Well, you took a few examples that *were* spot on... X-Men 2 projections were off by over $10 million (my over $75.5 was easy money)... Hell, Identity -$4 million vs The Real Cancun?
Studio projections are flawed, because if a movie did as well as the studio thought it would, there would be no "box office bombs" (like The Real Cancun) -- obviously there are.
Studio projections are flawed, because if a movie did as well as the studio thought it would, there would be no "box office bombs" (like The Real Cancun) -- obviously there are.
Intertops and Bodog lines don't offer much value because the most likely numbers are broken down into a number of different betting options (and the odds they offer don't justify trying to pick that small a "landing area".
But they do put the number up early, so if you have an early opinion and you think where most of the betting options offered are way off and you like either the "over" or the "under" (the two open ended bets), you can do ok if you are getting good enough odds.
Bodog and Intertops offer very small limits, but I am glad to see other books enter box office betting in the last couple months.
Sadly, X2 has come and gone without WWTS offering any betting on it, so I fear we may have lost them.
But WSEX continues to come out every week and thegreek.com generally follows with an adjusted line based on WSEX so that is two bigger betting options. I also like thegreek.com blockbuster matchups. A very cool option.
But they do put the number up early, so if you have an early opinion and you think where most of the betting options offered are way off and you like either the "over" or the "under" (the two open ended bets), you can do ok if you are getting good enough odds.
Bodog and Intertops offer very small limits, but I am glad to see other books enter box office betting in the last couple months.
Sadly, X2 has come and gone without WWTS offering any betting on it, so I fear we may have lost them.
But WSEX continues to come out every week and thegreek.com generally follows with an adjusted line based on WSEX so that is two bigger betting options. I also like thegreek.com blockbuster matchups. A very cool option.
I agree lakerfan... I think there's much more value in taking the "blockbuster matchups" -- you're basically betting on which movie will be better received by its audience, rather than betting on a whole slew of other factors.
BTW, when are we going to get some more of your insight in here? You seem to be the most knowledgeable guy when it comes to this stuff... and I'd always like to run some of my plays by you before making them.
BTW, when are we going to get some more of your insight in here? You seem to be the most knowledgeable guy when it comes to this stuff... and I'd always like to run some of my plays by you before making them.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by RodBoivin:
Cause I only give predictions when I know %100. Like Ebert. But for this I am 85% sure. I guess we'll just have to wait and see, won't we, HARTLEY!
RB<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
RB, no one here gives a shitt whether or not you took some line when you don't state what you took. The point here is to help each other.
Cause I only give predictions when I know %100. Like Ebert. But for this I am 85% sure. I guess we'll just have to wait and see, won't we, HARTLEY!
RB<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
RB, no one here gives a shitt whether or not you took some line when you don't state what you took. The point here is to help each other.
Sound of Silence and Oren - I don't spend the time I used to doing weekly box office research so my opinions are less informed. Lots of other things taking up my time. In addition, WSEX lines (where I used to make a lot of my plays) have gotten much sharper). Last summer was truely the glory days of box office betting with lines that could be beaten purely on fundamental box office analysis - without any tracking information (but as Oren and others have shown there are still some very good bets to be made). I will throw an opinion in when I have one, but I have fewer than before. Glad to see people doing well here.
I will likely post a couple of plays this summer, when I find one or two I really like.
It is cool to see the Other sports forum having more people playing the box office.
And Oren, I am sure OLY is aware that they are taking the worst of it most of the time. It is a tribute to Spiro, that he keeps giving unique betting options. I doubt you will ever see them go to a Bodog/Intertops style of betting. They would quit offering them before that. My guess is moving to even lower limits if they continue to get hit hard this summer.
They need T3 to do really well.
lol
All the best
I will likely post a couple of plays this summer, when I find one or two I really like.
It is cool to see the Other sports forum having more people playing the box office.
And Oren, I am sure OLY is aware that they are taking the worst of it most of the time. It is a tribute to Spiro, that he keeps giving unique betting options. I doubt you will ever see them go to a Bodog/Intertops style of betting. They would quit offering them before that. My guess is moving to even lower limits if they continue to get hit hard this summer.
They need T3 to do really well.
All the best
